Forecast Probability

James
James
  • Updated

How can I see forecast probability?

Use the "Table View" layout (see the forecast layout toggle article for more info) to see a Forecast Probability %

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In the app, you must swipe right across the table to see Secondary Swell then Wave Energy/Consistency/Weather/Pressure/Probability

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What does it mean?

A forecast showing 100% probability does not mean it will definitely happen.

Our 21 swell models use slightly different starting conditions to predict future wind and swell.

The resulting percentage score is based on how close the models are in their forecasts. The higher the % the less likely the forecast is to change.

A 100% probability score means there is consensus among the models, but like any weather-related forecast, the model guidance may prove to be incorrect.

We give this metric for the first 9 days of the forecast. It is normal to see a lower forecast probability % later on in the forecast.

 

Questions?

Write to support@surfline.com or submit a ticket in our Surfline Support Center! 

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