If you aren’t seeing a forecast probability column in your magicseaweed-style forecast, you should see it soon.
It is already available at most spots we’ve brought over from magicseaweed. The team are currently working on adding this useful metric to all other spot forecasts we issue on Surfline.
What is forecast probability?
A forecast showing 100% probability does not mean it will happen.
Our 21 swell models use slightly different starting conditions to predict future wind and swell.
The resulting percentage score is based on how close the models are in their forecasts. The higher the %, the less likely the forecast is to change.
A 100% probability score means there is consensus among the models, but like any weather-related forecast, the model guidance may prove to be incorrect.